Learning from History: London's 1952 the Great Smog.

London under the fog. Creator: Oli Scarff | Image Property: Getty Images

I’ve never been great at remembering dates and historical events. Back in school, I struggled to see the point—why did I need to memorize when Isaac Newton was born? Or, in my country, why Benito Juárez’s birthday mattered (besides it being a holiday)?

History class always felt the same: names, events, causes, consequences, places—a never-ending list of things to memorize. But what did any of that have to do with me? Or my community?

Then, I came across a quote:

"Those who do not learn from the past are condemned to relive it."

That hit me. Because what good is knowing the future if we don’t understand the decisions that shaped it?

History, but Make It Personal

The problem is, history is often told by the winners. It’s biased. It’s incomplete. If we only get one perspective, how much of it is actually useful?

Fast-forward to 2021. My wife and I started watching The Crown on Netflix. If you haven’t seen it, it’s a historical drama covering Britain’s history from the 1940s onward. Unlike a textbook, it doesn’t just give you dates and names—it makes you feel. And that’s when history becomes real.

One episode, in particular, caught my attention: Season 1, Episode 4 – “Act of God.” It tells the story of the Great Smog of London in 1952, and suddenly, I wasn’t just watching history—I was thinking about how we could learn from it.

What If We Could Rewind History?

As I watched, I started imagining a different way to experience this event—not just as a story on screen, but as a simulation, a virtual experiment where we could test different decisions and see if we could change the outcome.

That’s when I set myself on a two-month journey (a torment, really) to build a System Dynamics simulator of the Great Smog. And let me tell you, it wasn’t easy:

1. A Serial Killer Stole the Headlines – During those five days, London was also dealing with a murderer, so newspapers barely covered the smog at first.

2. I Had No Connection to London – I’d never been there, and honestly, British history had never interested me before.

3. There Was No Real-Time Data – No social media, no live reporting—just limited records from 70 years ago.

Still, I dove in.

What Happened During the Great Smog?

For five days, London disappeared under a toxic fog. Here’s how it unfolded:

🔹 A cold front moved in—so, naturally, Londoners lit their coal fireplaces to stay warm.

🔹 A high-pressure system trapped the smoke, causing a phenomenon called thermal inversion (think of it as an invisible lid over the city).

🔹 Smog had nowhere to go—it built up, thickened, and turned deadly.

By Day 1, airports and trains shut down.

By Day 2, 150,000 people needed medical attention.

By Day 3, hospitals ran out of gauze for face masks.

By Day 5, 4,000 people had died—a number that would later rise to 12,000.

And yet, the government refused to act. In The Crown, a character even says:

"The smoke makes people believe we have progress."

Translation: shutting down factories wasn’t an option. The economy came first. Sound familiar?

Coal Consumption CLD: Source: Own Elaboration.

The Real Cause: A Deadly Loop

After an investigation, the true cause of the disaster became clear:

📌 Post-war Britain had sold its high-quality coal to pay off debts.

📌 The remaining coal was low-grade, with high sulfur content.

📌 Burning more coal produced more pollution, making the smog even worse.

This created a vicious cycle—one that could have been avoided.

What If You Were in Charge?

Now, imagine taking that energy—the frustration of memorizing history—and turning it into something useful.

With today’s technology, we don’t just have to read about the past—we can simulate it. That’s why I built this Great Smog simulator.

🔹 Can you make better decisions than Churchill’s government?

🔹 Would your policies save more lives? Or would they make things worse?

This isn’t just about history—it’s about understanding unintended consequences in business, environment, and policy-making.

The Great Smog Virtual Experience front cover.

Try the Virtual Experience!

I invite you to experience history differently. Play with the model, test your ideas, and see how decision-making works in a crisis.

🔗 Try the simulator here

Final Thoughts

Since 1952, similar events have happened—not just from coal, but from car emissions. The underlying pattern is the same:

1️⃣ There’s an invisible threat to human health.

2️⃣ There’s a factor that amplifies it.

3️⃣ Prioritizing the economy over public health leads to catastrophe.

Sounds a lot like COVID-19, doesn’t it?

If we don’t learn from these patterns, we risk repeating them.

🚀 Join me on this journey. I’ll continue exploring the stories that shape our world—and how we can use them to shape the future.

📢 Share this with someone who would love it, and leave a comment with your thoughts. What scenarios should I add to the simulator? Let’s make history something we can truly learn from.

📺 Bonus: This simulator was presented at the 2021 International System Dynamics Conference—and it won the People’s Choice Best Poster Award! 🏆🎉

Let me know what you think, and keep an eye out for more experiments like this.